New CBA's impact on the St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals fans can rest assured. They can spend the next several days playing Cyber GM thanks to an agreement between the players and owners on a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA).

Before you read further, I want you to understand that this article is about the impact some of the very few details the new CBA will have on not only MLB, but the St. Louis Cardinals baseball operation, based on past history of doing business.  It will not be about how much money the Cardinals should pay Dexter Fowler. Nor will I break down the Top 5 deals general manager John Mozeliak should make now. You can read that crap anywhere.

~ The trade deadline will be interesting again.  No, that is not a play on Donald Trump’s campaign slogan, but it is true. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, the trade deadline became a yawner, thanks to the first round draft pick compensation attached to a pending free agent who declined a qualifying offer. Now that the compensation looks like a third rounder, look for the trade deadline to look like what it use to be.

Meaning? Teams who have been hesitant of late to unload a star with an expiring contract mid-season should be more willing to wheel and deal. Without the first rounder as compensation, teams should see more value in the load of prospects that come at the trade deadline. Three high quality prospects versus a top 20 pick is a tough call. Three high qualify prospects versus pick No. 90 makes the haul a bit nicer at mid-year.

~ How does this impact the Cardinals? Former general manager Walt Jocketty was the master of shipping prospects off for a star. Mark McGwire and Scott Rolen come to mind. Mozeliak made a splash to grab Matt Holliday from Oakland in 2009, but otherwise, has avoided any blockbusters at the deadline. For the most part, the Cardinals have hoarded prospects and built from within.

Now, things may change, especially because other teams may be more aggressive in dealing stars. Maybe Mozeliak will be more opportunistic. Lord knows he has the prospect capital to do so.

~ My guess is this means that Jaime Garcia is in St. Louis in April. Why? Leverage baby. Trading Garcia now gives Mozeliak very little leverage in this new world. Before this CBA agreement, Garcia would look more intriguing to an acquiring team in the winter. Trade for Garcia now,  then he has a big year, give him the QO and voila, you get a first rounder.

But, in the new world, there is no first rounder with that QO. There is only a third rounder (maybe a second). So Mozeliak loses leverage to trade him now. Additionally, you generally gain leverage by trading mid-season, when teams are strapped for starting pitching. If Mozeliak has a surplus, which he would by keeping Garcia and assuming the other seven starting pitchers are healthy, he suddenly has a ton of leverage. Plus, there would be little incentive for Mozeliak to keep Garcia around after the deadline (besides a pennant chase I guess) because offering him a QO does not have the benefit it did, say, a few hours ago.

~ How does this change the markets for Manny Machado and Bryce Harper after 2018? And do these players now become trade chips if Baltimore or Washington fall out of contention or are no longer confident they can re-sign their star? In the old world, hold on to your guy, pray you can re-sign him, and if not,  you get a first rounder. Do I really have to explain the new world again? Stars like these could get moved more often.

~ The CBA was not very friendly for international players, with hard caps put in place. This could give the Cardinals a nice advantage, who have had some success in the international markets (Carlos Martinez, Alex Reyes, Aledmys Diaz). The organization has invested heavily in scouting and facilities in the Caribbean and parts of Latin America. With spending being capped, value must be had and the advanced infrastructure can only help the Cardinals.

~ I’m shocked that some of the changes were so simple, especially with baseball being healthier than ever. New TV deals have helped owners rake in ungodly amounts of cash and I thought players may fight a bit harder for things in their benefit, such as the 26-man roster, maybe a DH in the National League, and shorter control times of young players. I didn’t want these things to happen, just thought they were real possibilities and possible roadblocks.

~ Also shocked we still haven’t heard what the Cardinals penalty will be for the hacking scandal. And there may be details in the CBA that discuss future penalties for these infractions. At some point, judgement will be served.

Thoughts? Agree or disagree? We’d love your feedback and comments below. As always, thanks for reading! – @CoreyRudd