Dexter Fowler comps should be a concern

St. Louis Cardinals fans rejoiced last week when it was finally announced that general manager John Mozeliak was able to land his big fish, Dexter Fowler. Mozeliak certainly pushed some of his own boundaries with this deal, extending Fowler to five-years at a price tag of $82.5 million to bring him to St. Louis.

The move has received loads of praise from the talking heads in the market. Benjamin Hochman likes the signing, of course, for reasons that have nothing to do with actual sports. Derrick Goold has pointed out that Fowler’s personality and leadership will add a new dynamic to the clubhouse. Finally, Bernie Miklasz, who use to be much more pragmatic before getting in the business of generating ears in exchange for advertising dollars, seems to be just thankful the Cardinals spent some of their hard-earned money.

Most of the logic I have gathered amongst bloggers and fans that results in this being viewed as a mostly positive move centers around two statements: “The Cardinals have the money” and “they had to do something.”  I understand the logic, but pardon me for finding it just a little bit lazy.

I have found myself on the other side of the fence from most when it comes to Fowler. While I agree that an upgrade was necessary in center field, I do not agree with the cost. Spending money simply to spend money is not a wise financial decision, at least by what I am told in the book Millionaire Next Door.

Why do I feel this is an overpay and that Cardinals fans will regret how gleeful they felt after Fowler’s impressive press conference? Lets look at a couple of case studies to find out.

Case Study #1

Player A: best career season (age 27): .373 OBP, 70 runs scored, 3.4 bWAR
Player B: best career season (age 30): .393 OBP, 84 runs scored, 4.1 bWAR

Additionally, lets look at their career defensive runs from fielding, according to Baseball-reference.com:

Player A: -1 over seven seasons
Player B: -55 over nine seasons

Player A is none other than Jon Jay, who was public enemy number one in St. Louis before Mozeliak shipped him off to San Diego in exchange for Jedd Gyorko, a move that Mozeliak still does not get enough credit for.

Player B is Fowler.

Jay is playing in Chicago for $8 million on a one-year deal. Fowler, obviously in St. Louis for twice that much for five more years. Jay is currently 31, while Fowler is 30, and his best year is a few years back. But both players have the similar strength of getting on base.

Also, Jay was scorned for being poor defensively and since the signing, many have lauded about how Fowler will stabilize the Cardinals outfield defense. Unfortunately, that just does not look like the case.

Case Study #2

Player A: 115 career home runs, .781 OPS at time of contract (age 29), 32 home runs, .720 OPS since over six seasons
Player B: 65 career home runs, .789 OPS at time of contract (age 30), 32 home runs, .708 OPS since over three seasons
Player C: 78 career home runs, .788 OPS at time of contract (age 30)

Player A is Carl Crawford, who received a seven-year, $142 million contract from Boston (well done Theo Epstein). He will be paid almost $22 million in 2017 and currently is not on a roster.

Player B is Jacoby Ellsbury, who received a seven-year, $153 million contract from the Yankees (dummies).

Player C is obviously Fowler.

Here is my point. The parallels between the declines of Crawford and Ellsbury are staggering once they received their big deals. At least Ellsbury has been able to stay healthy and in the lineup, although he wasn’t deemed good enough to start during the playoffs in 2015. Their production obviously declined tremendously once they found their new home.

Additionally, while Fowler’s numbers stack up comparably to the pre-contract numbers of Ellsbury and Crawford, keep in mind Fowler has spent seven of his eight years hitting at either Coors Field or Wrigley Field. So there could be some inflation in those numbers based on how hitter friendly those parks have been historically.

While Fowler is not as expensive as Crawford or Ellsbury, it may be very likely his production mimics their fall off as the trio are very similar players (high on-base percentage, some power, above average speed). But lets just spend money because we have it, right?

Summary:

I like Fowler. He seems like a good dude and the pundits are likely right. He seems to have some incredible leadership skills and could change the immediate make-up of this Cardinals roster.

But I still feel like this was an avoidable overpay by Mozeliak and the Cardinals. An overpay that he is receiving praise for now, but a high probability he will receive scorn for in 2020 and 2021, when he may be one of the highest paid fourth outfielders in baseball.

Thoughts? Let me know by commenting below. Thanks for reading, @CoreyRudd