How John Mozeliak is like Warren Buffet

This post was originally posted on our old URL on December 25, 2015, but is meant to give you simply a snippet of what you should expect from us in the future on our new home, RooSportsMedia.com! 

John Mozeliak is smarter than you.  He is smarter than me as well, so please do not feel as though I am only singling you out. But it must be said, that he is much smarter than you, despite the criticism he has faced this offseason for his failures in luring Jason Heyward and David Price to the St. Louis Cardinals. I mean, its not like he didn’t try. He did offer each a contract approaching $200 million, which are commitments his boss has never pledged to any single player before. Not even the great Albert Pujols.

Yet, the BFIB has constantly bitched and moaned about how poorly Mozliek performed this winter. Pardon me for repeating myself, but this is exactly why Mozeliak is smarter than you. When it comes to bidding on free agents, just because you do not win does not mean you fail. You can win a free agent, and still fail (see Mike Hampton, Alfonso Soriano, Carl Crawford and the list goes on and on and on and on….).

Mozeliak is smarter than you because he treats managing his team like managing an investment portfolio. To Mozeliak and the Cardinals, it is more about risk management than the instant gratification of landing the highest priced toy. Mozeliak has a system, is extremely disciplined, does not let emotions dictate his decisions, and manages to avoid catastrophic mistakes that can neuter a roster for years to come. Since Mozeliak took over the Cardinals, they have never shot blanks and once again he has positioned this team to satisfy this rabid fan base again in 2016.

It is my belief that Mozeliak is the Warren Buffett of baseball.  Let me reference one of my favorite Buffett quotes before we go any further:

It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.

The complaints that continue to roll in via social media regarding Mozeliak is that he simply did not do enough to lock down Heyward or Price. Or that Mozeliak and Bill Dewitt are “too cheap”. Eff that. I applaud Mozeliak for being able to stay disciplined, control his emotions and not overextend himself and make a bad investment decision because he got caught up in the moment.

I would argue that Mozeliak has really only made one big mistake since taking over the GM reigns, and that happened last winter when he traded Shelby Miller for Heyward. Of course, we view that as a mistake now that Heyward was not retained, but the trade was made mostly because of…. yup, emotion and the knee jerk reaction to do something after the sudden and tragic loss of Oscar Taveras.

This winter, Mozeliak identified assets that he wanted to invest in. As Buffett would say, Heyward and Price are clearly “wonderful companies.” But was the end price fair? Mozeliak got beat by $30 million on Price (that is an extremely wide margin) and was unwilling to give Heyward the opt-outs that Theo Epstein was willing to part with (ask the Dodgers how those opt-outs work as they now have to face Zack Greinke.)  There are certain places Mozeliak is willing to go and certain places he won’t, no matter what the situation presents and the fact that he stayed disciplined during the Pujols process and again with Heyward should give you confidence in this roster over the long-term.

Personally, I think these opt-outs that are being handed to these players are toxic. The Cubs got three years of Heyward and if he turns out to be anything close to the money they gave him over those three years, he will be gone. If he stinks, then the Cubs are on the hook for an additional five seasons.  Do you really understand how much risk that is? Mozeliak does. You would think Epstein would as well, since he gave a similar contract to Crawford (without the opt-out, but it wouldn’t have mattered because even if Crawford had it the Red Sox and now Dodgers would be stuck with him) a few years ago before darting out of Boston after a slew of other poor deals.

Mozeliak is the ultimate value investor as general manager.

He was willing to pay $80 million for Mike Leake over five-years, because much like a dividend stock where you can rely on that consistent income, Leake is a very predictable player. He is not going to give you a Cy Young season, light up the radar gun or dazzle the advanced metrics nerd-table. But he will give you innings and quality starts while acting as the horse that can carry the rotation along-side Adam Wainwright for the duration of a 162 game season. This will help keep Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha fresh. That is risk management.

Mozeliak acted as a value investor last July. Most were pissed that he dealt away Rob Kaminsky for Brandon Moss last July, and the return on Moss throughout the rest of 2015 was minimal. But lets look at what Mozeliak gave up. He traded away his fourth best minor league left-handed starter (Marco Gonzales, Tim Cooney and Tyler Lyons all are ahead in their development and Austin Gomber is not far behind). He traded away a guy who may never become anything more than a LOOGY and has similar upside to the others mentioned. In return, he got Moss, a guy who can play three positions and has power. A guy who after the 2016 season will be a free agent and as often happens when one is about to get paid, could be primed for a breakout season. A guy that was a form of insurance shall another team act irrational in their quest to land Heyward. The trade was a risk, but a low-risk, high-upside type of move. Additionally, Mozeliak dealt from a position of strength. That is risk management.

Jhonny Peralta was another example of being a value investor. Coming off his PED suspension, many were not in the mood to touch Peralta. Mozeliak pounced on the market inefficiency, landing Peralta at a bargain, especially for the production he has provided through the first two years of the deal.  On top of it, Mozeliak front loaded the deal to give himself more flexibility should Peralta falter, making him easier to move with a lower salary later in the deal. Again, that is risk management.

Mozeliak also is not afraid to dump an investment before it really turns sour. Allen Craig, David Freese, Carlos Beltran and yes, Pujols, all come to mind.

I honestly feel that the bow-tied, sweater wearing GM is the best in the business. I can assure you that he can be considered a shark among his peers. I am confident that others are modeling their franchise and attempting to run their teams like Mozeliak has been able to run the Cardinals.

Being cheap and being disciplined are not the same and I hope I’ve made the case that Mozeliak is disciplined. For that, you should be thankful that you haven’t watched Zack Greinke walk away half way through his commitment or wonder if C.C. Sabathia will spend the rest of his contract on the mound or in rehab. I would invest in Warren Buffett directly if given the chance. You should be fully invested, and you should fully trust, John Mozeliak as the general manager of the Cardinals. He is smarter than you give him credit for.

~ Knowing how I feel regarding Mozeliak, and his process, lets look at the likelihood the Cardinals land any of these other prized free agents.

Chris Davis – Do you really think a shrewd investor would be interested in a guy asking for $200 million that hit .196 and had a .704 OPS as recently as 2014? Do I even need to mention the strikeout rate, the park factor or the 50 game ban he has already served for adderrall? $52 million over four years for Peralta is one thing, but $200 million over eight like Davis is seeking is considerably more risk. Moving on…

Yoenis Cespedes – After posting a monster second half last season (in a contract year, like I anticipate Moss might), there seems to be little interest in Cespedes, even after Heyward set the market. Just going out on a limb, but it might have to do with him being on four different teams over the past two years. There may be a reason for that. It might be related to playing a round of golf during the playoffs.

Justin Upton – Here is another example of a young player that has been on several teams. While the flags are not the same for Upton as they are for Cespedes, there is another major flag and that is the fact that Upton is related to the artist formerly known as B.J. Upton. I personally do not know much regarding Upton’s character, but I do know he can not play center field and if I am giving $100-plus million to an outfielder, he better hit like Hank Aaron or play some center field too.

Carlos Gonzalez – Have you seen often this guy is hurt? Pass.

~ The biggest risk for the Cardinals as the roster stands now is in center field. My colleague Farmer Cardinal highlighted this in our site’s debut article this morning and I agree with him completely.

How are we suppose to believe that Randal Grichuk is healthy? It says a lot about your elbow if you can not play during a pennant race in September and are limited in the playoffs in October. You are naive not to question this medical staff and I would not be surprised if he is on the shelf with Tommy John surgery at some point in 2016.

Then there is Pham, who has spent nine seasons in the minors but only ammassed 400 at bats on two occassions. He has never been able to stay healthy, so why should I believe he can now?

If the Cardinals are truly talking with Colorado about an outfielder as many have speculated, I hope its in regards to Charlie Blackmon. I am fully aware of his splits, low on-base percentage and questionable defense. But I do believe Coors plays tricks with your defensive stats and with his years of control, how would you not like him as a great complement in the outfield?

~ If I am really dreaming, I would really like to see the Cardinals trade for Kevin Kiermaier, but that is a purely a pipe dream, even though the Cardinals have been connected with the Tampa Rays too.

Player A: 47 xBH, 18 SB, 5.5 fWAR
Player B: 50 xBH, 23 SB, 6.0 fWAR

Player A is Kiermaier and Player B is Mr. Heyward. Oh, and Kiermaier is the natural center fielder. Of course, he would garner a haul in a trade because of these reasons.

~ Congrats are in order for St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Benjamin Hochman, who was nominated by Deadspin for writing one of the worst sports columns of 2015. What is truly hysterical, is Deadspin got it all wrong. Hochman wrote at least three other columns that were definitely worst than the one this Deadspin writer (who calls himself a “friend of Hochsy) chose. My goodness we are truly effing blessed here in St. Louis with some great journalists (sarcasm friends).  Who am I kidding, I miss Bryan Burwell more than ever (not sarcasm).

Thanks for checking out this inaugural post. Hopefully your brain is stimulated just a bit.